So this story is looking pretty bad right about now my feeling is that the second largest US Bond holder, Japan, was trying to unload the bonds. The probable buyer was the US Government itself since above all the US must prevent a panic sell off of US Treasury Bonds. Additionally no government in the world WANTS a run on US Treasuries since so many hold them. It isnt because they are our allies but merely self interest. If you are holding something you believe will be worthless shortly and you are a Foreign Government holding huge amounts of that soon to be worthless paper then you start trying to unload them anyway you can. And you do it as quietly as possible so that the price holds up. The price here is defined by the value of the dollar. If it were known that the Japanese government was unloading US Bonds in such a fashion the US dollar would collapse leading to the collapse in the value of the rest of the bonds the Japanese and others hold.
Given that the Federal Reserve has already BEEN buying US Treasury Bonds it stands to reason that they are probably trying to buy up those bonds in foreign hands quietly to avoid any sort of panic run.
If my hypothesis is correct we are very close to collapse. If you have doubts about this story then consider the highlighted portion of this post
Seizure of US government bonds from two Japanese men in Italy raises questions
Seized US bonds are worth US$ 134.5 billion. The whole affair touches a number of economic and political issues. For some the resignation of Japans Interior minister might be related to it.
Milan (AsiaNews) There have been new developments with regards to the story of US$ 134.5 billion in US government bonds seized by Italys financial police at Ponte Chiasso on the Italian-Swiss border, which AsiaNews reported four days ago. News about it initially made it to the front page of many Italian papers, but not of the international press. Since yesterday though, some reports have published by English-language news agencies. And some commentators are starting to link the story to reports in US press dating back to 30 March.
On that date the US Treasury Department announced that it had about US$ 134.5 billion left in its financial-rescue fund, the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), whose purpose is to purchase assets and equity to buttress companies in trouble. The existence of such means that the Obama administration may not have to go to Congress for additional funds, something which is especially important since many lawmakers have vowed to oppose any requests for more money.
At the same time, Japans Kyodo news agency has reported that the resignation of Japans Interior Minister Kunio Hatoyama might also be related to the Ponte Chiasso affair. Officially the minister quit as a result of a row over who should head the state-owned Japan Post, but some sources have suggested that such a scenario is not very plausible since Mr Hatoyama was Prime Minister Taro Asos main ally in his rise to the prime ministers office, and is especially unconvincing since the ruling coalition government has to face elections in just two weeks time. Indeed there are many reasons to connect the Ponte Chiasso incident to the ministers resignation.
First of all, the men carrying the bonds had a Japanese passport. Secondly, they were not arrested. Under Italian law anyone in possession of counterfeit cash or bonds worth more than a few tens of thousands of euros must be arrested. By comparison the value of the seized counterfeit bonds is equal to 1 per cent of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Thirdly, how the seizure took place is worthy of a Monty Python movietwo well-dressed Japanese men carrying a briefcase travelling in a local train usually used by Italian manual labourers who commute to Switzerland for work had as much chance to go unobserved as two European businessmen travelling in the Congo.
For AsiaNews the incident raises several questions. For example, why did Italys press, of every stripe, first give the matter great visibility, only to drop it as quickly? Also, if we are to assume that the bonds are real, why were they in Italy on their way to Switzerland? If these were the unused TARP funds why would they be in US Federal Reserve denomination? Would it not have been better to wait to see how they would be used before the bonds were issued? If they are authentic and owned by a foreign state, why were they not transported in a diplomatic bag, which cannot be inspected at customs? And what will the Italian government do insofar as the issue represents an offence under Italian law? Will it impose a fine of 38 billion euros, and run the risk of a row with an ally, or return the money without any penalty to the rightful owner and show the world that Italy is some kind of banana republic, a semi-colonial protectorate that violates its own laws and constitution?
Whatever the case may be, for Italys Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi it is a heavy burden to bear, given the legal and criminal consequences he might face.
The only people who come out of it well are Italys tax cops, reason for them to show off their success on their website.
Thanks to NoisyRoom.net for the great links!
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